Cambridge Analytica and the Flipping of an Election – the Law of Small Numbers

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There was an all out effort to manipulate who voted during the 2016 Election.

We were besieged with fake news, bots, data mining and micro-targeted ads.

Wherever we turned we got fake news, whether it was TV, YouTube, our social media accounts, or the Trump Campaign.

Cambridge Analytica had profiles of 50 million US citizens with up to 5,000 data points on each. They ran targeted ads on Facebook. They used Twitter to analyze sentiment data looking at responses to keywords.

We know it had an effect.

Lets look at some numbers.
Since this election was won in the swing states, and margin of victory is all that matters, lets start there.

Lets talk about Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Pennsylvania Trump won by 44,292 votes

In Michigan Trump won by 10,704 votes

In Wisconsin Trump won by 22,748 votes

These are large states with a large number of counties and a huge number of precincts.

With margins like those, it only takes a very small change in numbers happening in many places to alter an election.

Lets start in Michigan.

Michigan has approximately:

5001 precincts,

949 voters per precinct,

83 counties,

57,180 voters per county.

If a relatively small number of voters per precinct did not vote or had their minds change by targeted social media — a number that would on its own draw no attention to itself — the actual result of these small events when looked at on a county or state level becomes quite concerning.

Lets start with a what-if.

What if all of the deterrents targeted at Clinton voters had the effect of convincing only a few Clinton voters per precinct to not cast a ballot.

This small number would not draw much attention to itself.

Since a vote that is flipped actually counts as two votes, any would-be Clinton voter that switched to Trump would create a 2 for 1 difference.

In Michigan, for instance, if only three Clinton voters per precinct decided not to cast a ballot, Clinton would have lost 3 votes times 5001 precincts. That’s 15,003 Votes. Enough for her to have won the State by 5002 Votes!

If only one Clinton voter per precinct decided not to cast a ballot and one Clinton voter per precinct switched to Trump, Clinton would have lost the same number of votes. 15,003. Again, enough that Trump would have lost in Michigan.

Lets not forget that on top of all of this Detroit  —  a hugely Democratic population  —  had 87 broken voting machines and 75,000 uncounted ballots.

Do you think that with the news and targeted data assault against us that it didn’t have the effect of changing the minds of 3 voters per precinct?

Who really won Michigan?

Lets go to Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has approximately:

9092 precincts,

667 voters per precinct,

67 counties,

90, 513 voters per county.

Lets run the numbers the same way.

In Pennsylvania if only five Clinton voters per precinct decided not to cast a ballot — only five — Clinton would have lost 5 votes times 9092 Precincts or 45,460 votes.

Five more votes per precinct would have been enough for Clinton to have won the State by 1,232 votes.

If only two Clinton voters per precinct decided not to cast a ballot and two Clinton voters per precinct switched to Trump, that would have cost Clinton 54,552 votes!

Enough to have won Pennsylvania by 9,092 votes.

The news and data assault against Clinton was so strong and well orchestrated. It could easily have had the effect of changing the minds of two voters per precinct, and caused two others to stay home.

Who really won Pennsylvania?

Last up is Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has approximately:

3627 precincts,

797 voters per precinct,

72 counties,

40,149 voters per county.

In Wisconsin if only seven Clinton voters per precinct decided not to cast a ballot. Only seven!!

Or if only two Clinton voters didn’t vote and two Clinton voters flipped to Trump…

Clinton would have lost 7 votes times 3627 Precincts or 25,389 votes.
Enough to have won the State by 1232 Votes!!

Do you think that with the news and data assault against us that it didn’t have the affect of changing the minds of seven voters per precinct?

Who really won Wisconsin?

We were attacked. From all sides. Non stop.

As shown above the affect even looking at very small numbers has an overwhelming total effect.

In these three swing states, if just seven Clinton voters per precinct decided not to vote, or three decided not to Vote and two flipped to Trump, Hillary Clinton would be the President.

What do you think?

Read Mike’s thread here.
Read our Article on Medium.

 

 

 


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